Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Peavy Predictions

So unless you've been living under a rock these past 3 weeks you have probably heard a lot about the chance of this, uhh decent pitcher called Jake Peavy being traded. Multiple times it’s been said that a trade was imminent between the Padres and the Braves only for it to be reported nothing was close a few hours later. So that bullshit only went on for THREE WEEKS, until the Braves declared they were moving on. A few days after this and it yet again looks like the Braves are the most likely target.

So let’s take a look at where we are today. Peavy's short list is known to contain the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, Cubs, and potentially the Yankees and Angels. Alright so we can cross off the Astros and Cubs (now that Dempster was resigned). Can also most likely cross out the Yankees, I doubt they will give up anymore young talent. And the Angels don't seem to have shown any really interest. So that leaves us with just the Dodgers and the Braves. Now I doubt Peavy will really be traded in division unless the Dodgers are willing to give up a much larger package, which is unlikely as it goes against Dodgers GM, Ned Colletti’s philosophy on how to build a team.

So we end up with only the Braves as a potential suitor. Now lets look at the Braves situation this offseason. The Braves have about 45 million to spend this offseason and are looking to add two quality starters (most likely one high end and one mid end like Paul Byrd) as well as a quality left field bat. Let’s take a quick look at the FA pool for high end starters. After the Ryan Dempster signing CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, and AJ Burnett are the only high end starters left. CC will almost surely end up in New York with the Yankees ridiculous offer of 140 million for 6 years. AJ Burnett will most likely follow suit, with reports that the Yankees will be offering 80 mil for 5 years, substantially more than the Jay's offer of 54 mil for 4 years. So that leave's Derek Lowe, with reports that the Mets, the Yankees, and the Red Sox will be in on the bidding for him. So if Derek Lowe does sign elsewhere, which seems likely, who does that leave the Braves? Let's see, they could try signing Ben Sheets this seems unlikely though, they are trying to get away from injury prone pitchers (i.e. Mike Hampton). So we return full circle to Peavy as the only potential ace left. Now I can see playing out one of six ways...

1. Frank Wren tells Kevin Towers that the Braves are just no longer interested, and signs two mid tier starters such as Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf.

2. Frank Wren agrees to reengage in discussions and Peavy is dealt for a package revolving around Escobar and some other high end prospect, most likely pitching (not Hanson).

3. Frank Wren decides to low ball the Padres and they are eventually forced to agree due to the economic situation as well as John Moore's divorce.

4. The Padres and Brave's agree to a trade but, refuse to give Peavey the no-trade clause he wants, as the braves as an organization are traditionally against no-trade clauses, thus Peavey rejects the deal.

5. Kevin Towers tells Peavey unless he adds more teams to his short list he will be playing for a rebuilding Padres team. Peavy agrees to add more teams and is dealt elsewhere.

6. Kevin Towers tells Peavey unless he adds more teams to his short list he will be playing for a rebuilding Padres team. Peavy doesn’t care and ends up the Padres opening day starter.

Out of all of these I see 2 as being the most likely. I think a combination of the Padres wanting to dump his salary coupled with the Brave's strong desire to return to the playoffs after three years will provide enough momentum for the trade to happen.

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