Tuesday, February 10, 2009

PECOTA projections

Hey guy's I know the posting has been kind of sparatic lately as we've been busy with a lot of stuff. Anyway we should be back to posting on a daily basis.


To get away from the 300 pound gorilla also known as A-rod I figured it would be fun to take a look at the PECOTA projections which came out today. For those of you who do not know, the PECOTA projections are predictions of what the final standings will be in the regular season based upon the saber metric information we have now. (You can skip to the bottom if you’re only interested in the AL East)

To start off with the NL

West W-L
Arizona Diamondbacks 90-72
Los Angeles Dodgers 84-78
San Francisco Giants 79-83
Colorado Rockies 78-84
San Diego Padres 74-88

Keep in mind that this information is based on the teams right now, so no Manny Ramirez on the Dodgers. Anyway, I don't think this is all that accurate especially the Diamondbacks winning 90 games. Yes they might be a young team that is going to get better as they develop but they only won 82 games last year and that was with the help of Orland Hudson (until he got injured) Adam Dunn for half the year and Randy Johnson. I see the Dodgers taking down this division again as long as they resign Manny but then again who knows. This is definitely one of the more wide open divisions in baseball at the moment.

Central W-L
Chicago Cubs 95-67
Milwaukee Brewers 83-79
St. Louis Cardinals 80-82
Cincinnati Reds 79-83
Houston Astros 66-96
Pittsburgh Pirates 65-97

I agree that the cubs will win the division, and that margin looks about right. I'm pretty surprised to see the Astros only winning 66 games though considering they are coming off an 86 win season, I guess the loss of Randy Wolf and Ty Wigginton has a bigger impact on the team than I thought it would. There pitching is pretty mediocre with little to speak of after Roy Oswalt.

East W-L
New York Mets 93-69
Atlanta Braves 88-74
Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
Washington Nationals 77-85
Florida Marlins 74-88

I find a few things here pretty surprising. I can definitely see the Mets winning the division, but I do not expect them to win by more than 2 games. K-rod is overrated in my opinion and Putz seemed to regress last year, there are rumors going around though that Bill Wagner’s rehab is ahead of schedule and he will be back around the all star break, we’ll just have to wait and see. Far more surprising though is the Nationals being projected to win 77 games and even doing better than the Marlins. I do not really see where all this improvement is coming from, aside from adding Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham they have not done much of anything this offseason and even manage to rival the Pirates for worst starting rotation in all of baseball

Next up the AL

West W-L
Oakland Athletics 82-80
Los Angeles Angels 79-83
Texas Rangers 73-89
Seattle Mariners 70-92

These don't seem that far fetched as the A's have had a pretty good offseason so far adding Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to make a horrible offense decent all of a sudden. The Angels on the other hand have had an offseason that is worth forgetting, after losing out on Mark Teixeira they have done zero to improve their team from last year. It should be interesting to see if Oakland’s young pitching staff can keep up the pace the entire year though.

Central W-L
Cleveland Indians 84-78
Minnesota Twins 79-83
Detroit Tigers 78-84
Kansas City Royals 75-87
Chicago White Sox 74-88

Talk about a wide open division. I can see it ending up as projected above, but honestly I would not be surprised if any of the teams won the division even the Royals. I do have to say though the Indians have had one of the best off-season this year adding Mark Derosa and Kerry Wood for very little. Oh they signed Carl Pavano also, that should keep there medical staff busy for sure.

And finally we arrive at the Al East

East W-L
Boston Red Sox 98-64
New York Yankees 97-65
Tampa Bay Rays 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 81-81
Baltimore Orioles 76-86

I'm pretty surprised to see the Red Sox on top of the Yankees and the Rays that far behind. I don't really understand this, as the Red Sox haven't done much this season aside from adding some depth and a bunch of reclamation projects. The Yankees of course had an amazing off season adding Burnett, CC, Teixeira and Swisher. In addition they have Phil Hughes, Posada, and Matsui coming back from injury as well as full years of Marte and Nady. Even if the Yankees pitching some how falls apart like last year, there will be some good mid year bargains with both Paul Byrd and Ben Sheets available. The Rays should also be better after signing Pat Burrell and reliever Brian Shouse, as well as some there younger players like David Price gaining more experience. You can also look for Carl Crawford to bounce back from what was a blow average year for him. Aside from that, the Jay’s projection looks about right, while the Orioles looks a bit low. I expect them to break the .500 mark after adding Ty Wigginton, Rich Hill, Felix Pie, and Koji Uehara, as well having top prospect Matt Wieters most likely making a mid year appearance. I haven’t heard of a prospect being as highly touted as him in a very long time

This year looks to be one of the more exciting years in baseball in a very long time. It will be interesting to see just how much of an impact the economy has on baseball. Most importantly though this looks to be the best Yankee team I have seen in a very long time going into spring training.

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