Closer Look: The Yankee Rotation

This past offseason the Yankees made headlines signing two of the premier pitchers on the market, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett to huge contracts. So far the Yankees rotation similar to the lineup has not performed anywhere near as it was expected to. Let’s take a closer look

FIP is an ERA equivalency calculation which takes into account just things the pitcher controls and defense is removed from the equation, just FYI if you didn't know.

FIP's of Yankees starters from last year (that have pitched this year):

CC Sabathia- 2.91
AJ Burnett- 3.45
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.74
Andy Pettite- 3.71
Joba Chamberlain-2.65 (skewed by his time as a reliever last year)
Phil Hughes- 4.34


FIP's of Yankee Starters this year:

CC Sabathia- 3.89
AJ Burnett- 5.09
Chien-Ming Wang- 24.12 (SIGH)
Andy Pettite- 4.54
Joba Chamberlain-4.74
Phil Hughes- 6.64

Alright, Phil Hughes and Joba I'll give passes to, there young, need more experience, growing pains, yaddi yaddi ya etc etc...

Chien-Ming Wang? Who’s that?

Andy Pettite- so far this year he has looked shaky at best. His FIP puts him at league average 4.54 way up from his FIP of 3.71 from last year. What’s different about him though? Mainly, he's striking out less hitters and walking more, but why? To find out lets examine the pitch f/x data courtesy of fangraphs. The velocities on his pitches are roughly the same, with his fastball velocity sitting at about 90 MPH. The vertical and horizontal movements are about the same on all of his pitches except one, arguably his most important, the cutter. The Vertical movement is a little different, but I am willing to chalk that up to sample size for now as its still moving a decent amount. The horizontal movement is the scary part, normally his cutter has a horizontal movement value of roughly -4 this year it has a value of -.4. What exactly does this mean? Basically his cutter isn't... well... uhh... cutting. I don't think I have to tell you why throwing a cutter which dosen't cut will not work in the big leagues. To make up for this he's throwing his slider 15% more of the time than last year, and his cutter 20% less of the time. If Pettite has any hope of success this year, he will either have to find his cutter again or learn to throw his slider for strikes more often.


CC Sabathia- Even after yesterdays performance his numbers are still less than stellar for his standards. He's striking out rougly one less batter per 9 innings and walking roughly 1 more batter per 9 innings. His line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates have reamined steady, as well as his velocity and pitch selection. I'm sure he will improve from where he is right now, but by how much is the real question. Just how much of his numbers were a product of playing in the national league last year? Now I'm not hating on the NL, but lets face it the Pirates batting line up, from last year especially, was not the scariest thing in the world.

AJ Burnett- The biggest disappointment of the year so far (Chien-Ming who?) with his current FIP differing from his projected FIP by over 1.5. You don't have to look very far to find out what’s wrong with him. He's striking out 2 less batters per 9 innings than last year, as well as letting up over 10% more fly balls this year. This increase in fly balls has led to an increase to his homerun rate per 9 innings. Unfortunately the short porch in right field has not helped this issue at all. Stuff wise and pitch selection wise everything seems to be the same. Hopefully, his homerun rate regresses somewhat, and his strike out rate goes back to what it was last year, otherwise it looks as if we may have another Carl Pavano esque contract in the books for the next 5 years.

Should the Yankees add another starter?

The Yankees appear to pretty much be done adding any more new players this offseason, but the rotation still has me a little worried beyond just the #5 starter. Let’s take a look at the rotation to see just where my worries come from.

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#1 CC Sabathia- A true ace, one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball no can really deny this. But in the past 2 years he has pitched roughly a total of 500 innings. For those who don't know that’s a ton. On average aces will pitch about 220 innings per year. Now I'm not saying he is going to get injured, if anyone has the body to be able to withstand the stress of pitching that many innings it’s CC. But I do think we will see about 40 less innings out of him this year

#2 Chien Ming Wang- Obviously a very solid pitcher who should put up another 200 innings this coming year. All he has to do is avoid any more freak injuries and avoid running the base baths at all costs.

#3 A.J. Burnett- This is where my worries start, in the past 5 years AJ has only managed to pitch over 200 innings twice. No one can argue that the guy has some of the better stuff in the league, but I'm still not convinced he has gotten over the injury bug which he has displayed throughout his career.

#4 Joba- Joba has shown he has the stuff and the mentality of an ace, but also appears to be plagued by the injury bug. In college he suffered from triceps tendinitis and this past year suffered from rotator tendinitis. I don't think we can expect to see anymore than 150 innings out of him and that’s being optimistic in my opinion.

#5 Phil Hughes- As of right now it looks like Phil Hughes will be the #5 starter for the Yankees in the 09 season. Even though he had a poor 08 season brought to a close early by injury, after a strong showing in the Arizona fall league I still think he will be able to have a solid 09. Like Joba though I can't see him pitching anymore than 150 innings.

#6 Aveces,Ian Kennedy, Dan giese, Phil Coke, etc- After the mess that was the Yankees rotation last year I don't think we can rely on any of these guys to even be serviceable starters (no Ian Kennedy even if you believe you did not pitch that badly last year it doesn’t make it come true. ERA's of 8.17 are actually quite awful).

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So the starting five in my opinion project to total about 900 innings in total, which is a perfectly good number. But let’s say AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes gets injured then what? Can the Yankees really afford Sidney Ponson type production from the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation again? I personally don't think the Yankees can even with their improved lineup from last year. For this reason I believe it’s imperative that the Yankees go out and sign one more pitcher to give the Yankees the depth they need. Now this pitcher doesn’t have to break the bank or even put up above league average numbers.