Last year the Yankees had the second worst defense in the league. The main culprits were Jeter, Cano, Giambi, and Abreu. So half the team basically. So far this year, the Yankees actually have one of the better defenses in the league. What exactly has changed though?
Well first off, replacing Giambi with a gold glove caliber first baseman has helped tremendously. While obviously it's helped the first base position it also appears to have had some kind of ripple affect on Cano. Cano no longer has to worry about a complete lack of range from the first baseman. This has allowed Cano to play further away from first base, like he did pre Giambi. Also, Tex has made Cano look even better by getting some balls that Cano clearly would have missed. Second, Derek Jeter seems to have rediscovered some of his range. He is definitely making plays this year which he would have had no shot at making last year. Who knows maybe he'll actually be able to stay at Shortstop until he retire. Lastly, the center field defense of Gardner/Melky has been way above average so far this year.
That's not to say the Yankees defense is fool proof though. The worst defender on the Yankees so far has been Nick Swisher. The real problem is that Nick Swisher is not a natural outfielder; he's actually a natural first baseman. Due to his unfamiliarity with the outfield he's often seen taking bad routes towards fly balls, which will often fall before he gets to them. The other issue defensively is A-rod. It looks as if his age combined with his hip surgery has slowed him down significantly. He's just not getting to line drives he used to, and with his hip really can't field bunts anymore. Oh, and pop ups still seem to be a big issue.
It's nice to see a good defensive Yankee team for once. The best part about it all is that this core is here to stay for the next 3+ years.
Showing posts with label defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label defense. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Fun with statistics: Pitching and defense part 2
Continuing from last time I am going to take a look at the Red Sox top 4 starters.
FIP's from last year
Josh Beckett-3.24
Jon Lester- 3.64
Dice K- 4.03
Tim Wakefield- 4.84
(I'm sure Brad Penny and Smoltz will factor in somewhere, but because exactly how they will is currently unknown I've decided not to include them)
Projected FIP's by Bill James for 2009
Josh Beckett-3.70
Jon Lester- 4.07
Dice K- 3.81
Tim Wakefield- 4.70
Then the pitcher ERA's from last year
Josh Beckett-4.03
Jon Lester- 3.21
Dice K- 2.90
Tim Wakefield- 4.13
And the projected ERA's for next year again by Bill James
Josh Beckett-3.57
Jon Lester- 4.02
Dice K- 3.58
Tim Wakefield- 3.91
So a few things stick out from these stats. First Josh Beckett pitched better than his ERA from last year seems to suggest. I'm going to hazard a guess there was a decent amount of bad luck involved in that. Second, Dice-K was possibly the luckiest pitcher in the MLB last year, with his ERA ending up over a full point less than what his FIP suggested. Lester and Wakefield also performed better than there FIP suggested I'm sure the defense played a pretty large role in this. Looking ahead to next year Beckett should get better as he comes off an injury ridden season and Wakefield also looks to improve a little, while Jon Lester and Dice K look to regress quite a bit.
Now let’s take a look at the Yankees projected rotation against the Red Sox projected rotation.
Yankees projected ERA's for next year
CC Sabathia- 3.48
AJ Burnett- 3.62
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.70
Andy Pettite-3.90
Red Sox projected ERA's for next year
Josh Beckett-3.57
Jon Lester- 4.02
Dice K- 3.58
Tim Wakefield- 3.91
Wow, as you can see that is about as close your going to get. The Yankees appear to have a slight advantage though, and I do have my doubts that Wakefield will actually be able to put up an era under 4, as the last time he did that was SEVEN years ago.
Now to examine the Red Sox defense from last year. Again I am going to use the fielding bible by Bill James and John Dewan. The Red Sox had strong infield defense last year with Kevin Youkilis making 6 more plays than the average first baseman, Dustin Pedroira, making 15 more plays than the average second baseman, Jed Lowrie making 8 more plays than the average shortstop and third baseman Mike Lowell not being found in the top 10 or the bottom 6. The outfield is tricky to analyze as Manny and Mark Kotsay were both minus defenders, but were only with the team for half a year. The other Red Sox outfielders can not be found in the top 10 or bottom 6of their respective positions, putting them at about average.
After looking through and analyzing all this information it appears that next year every single game will matter. The Yankees rotation looks to be neck and neck with the Red Sox rotation thanks to the addition of AJ and CC, while the Yankees defense should be on par with the Red Sox thanks to the addition of Teixeira, as well as Bobby Abreu and his fear of walls no longer being with the Yankees.
FIP's from last year
Josh Beckett-3.24
Jon Lester- 3.64
Dice K- 4.03
Tim Wakefield- 4.84
(I'm sure Brad Penny and Smoltz will factor in somewhere, but because exactly how they will is currently unknown I've decided not to include them)
Projected FIP's by Bill James for 2009
Josh Beckett-3.70
Jon Lester- 4.07
Dice K- 3.81
Tim Wakefield- 4.70
Then the pitcher ERA's from last year
Josh Beckett-4.03
Jon Lester- 3.21
Dice K- 2.90
Tim Wakefield- 4.13
And the projected ERA's for next year again by Bill James
Josh Beckett-3.57
Jon Lester- 4.02
Dice K- 3.58
Tim Wakefield- 3.91
So a few things stick out from these stats. First Josh Beckett pitched better than his ERA from last year seems to suggest. I'm going to hazard a guess there was a decent amount of bad luck involved in that. Second, Dice-K was possibly the luckiest pitcher in the MLB last year, with his ERA ending up over a full point less than what his FIP suggested. Lester and Wakefield also performed better than there FIP suggested I'm sure the defense played a pretty large role in this. Looking ahead to next year Beckett should get better as he comes off an injury ridden season and Wakefield also looks to improve a little, while Jon Lester and Dice K look to regress quite a bit.
Now let’s take a look at the Yankees projected rotation against the Red Sox projected rotation.
Yankees projected ERA's for next year
CC Sabathia- 3.48
AJ Burnett- 3.62
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.70
Andy Pettite-3.90
Red Sox projected ERA's for next year
Josh Beckett-3.57
Jon Lester- 4.02
Dice K- 3.58
Tim Wakefield- 3.91
Wow, as you can see that is about as close your going to get. The Yankees appear to have a slight advantage though, and I do have my doubts that Wakefield will actually be able to put up an era under 4, as the last time he did that was SEVEN years ago.
Now to examine the Red Sox defense from last year. Again I am going to use the fielding bible by Bill James and John Dewan. The Red Sox had strong infield defense last year with Kevin Youkilis making 6 more plays than the average first baseman, Dustin Pedroira, making 15 more plays than the average second baseman, Jed Lowrie making 8 more plays than the average shortstop and third baseman Mike Lowell not being found in the top 10 or the bottom 6. The outfield is tricky to analyze as Manny and Mark Kotsay were both minus defenders, but were only with the team for half a year. The other Red Sox outfielders can not be found in the top 10 or bottom 6of their respective positions, putting them at about average.
After looking through and analyzing all this information it appears that next year every single game will matter. The Yankees rotation looks to be neck and neck with the Red Sox rotation thanks to the addition of AJ and CC, while the Yankees defense should be on par with the Red Sox thanks to the addition of Teixeira, as well as Bobby Abreu and his fear of walls no longer being with the Yankees.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Fun with statistics: pitching and defense
With some time on my hands I though it would be fun to take a look at some of the stats for the yankees rotation and defense this upcoming season. Here are the FIP's (Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible) from last season.
FIP's
CC Sabathia- 2.91
AJ Burnett- 3.45
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.74
Andy Pettite-3.71
I decided to not include any other pitchers due to numbers that may have been skewed by time in the bullpen/lack of sample size.
Now here are the 4 pitchers projected FIP's for next year by Bill James
CC Sabathia- 3.53
AJ Burnett- 3.73
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.89
Andy Pettite-3.66
And then here are the picthers ERA's this past year
CC Sabathia- 2.70
AJ Burnett- 4.07
Chien-Ming Wang- 4.07
Andy Pettite-4.54
And finally here are the prjoected ERA's for next year
CC Sabathia- 3.48
AJ Burnett- 3.62
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.70
Andy Pettite-3.90
A few things jump out at me from these stats. First off the FIP's and the ERA's from last year for both Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettite don't match up at all. Was the Yankees defense really that bad (I'll get to this later). The second thing, why does CC project to regress that badly? Is the move to the AL East going to hurt him that badly? I don't think it will as its not like he has no experience pitching in the AL. Perhaps his numbers really are that inflated by his mid year move to the NL central last year. Will just have to wait and tell on this one.
Anyway, back to the Yankees defense from last year. I'm sure we've all heard the phrases like Derek Jeter and Jason Giambi have as much range as my grandmother at their respective positions, But really just how bad can there defense be? To answer this question I visisted http://www.fieldingbible.com/ by Bill James and John Dewan. Really an amazing site and a good read, I definently suggest you check out.
None of the Yankees outfielders appeared in the top 10 best fielders or worst 10, aside from Bobby Abreu who made 24 less plays than the average right fielder. So I guess that puts them at a little blow average. The Yankees infield on the other hand was horrific. Arod didn't rank in the top 10 or bottom 10, but from there it goes down hill. Jason Giambi made 18 less plays than the average firstbaseman, Jeter made 12 less, and Cano 16 less. So yes it really was that bad, on the bright side though Giambi's -18 has been replaced by Teixera's +24. Also, I expect Cano to rebound completely, it looked as if he was playing out of position all last year in order to try and make up for Giambi's complete lack of range (I don't think that worked top well). Keep in mind Cano made 17 more plays than the average second baseman in 2007. Unlike Jeter who made 34 less than the average shortstop.
After doing this research a few things have really stood out
1. The Mark Teixeira signing really was that important, without it the Yankees defense would be comparable to last year.
2. Andy Pettite may be one of the best deals of the offseason with an FIP projected to rank as the Yankee's second best
3. With Jeter’s defense declining like it is, what is going to happen to him once his contract is up?
Next time I am going to take a look at the Red Sox rotation and defense and see just how well it matches up against the Yankees.
FIP's
CC Sabathia- 2.91
AJ Burnett- 3.45
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.74
Andy Pettite-3.71
I decided to not include any other pitchers due to numbers that may have been skewed by time in the bullpen/lack of sample size.
Now here are the 4 pitchers projected FIP's for next year by Bill James
CC Sabathia- 3.53
AJ Burnett- 3.73
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.89
Andy Pettite-3.66
And then here are the picthers ERA's this past year
CC Sabathia- 2.70
AJ Burnett- 4.07
Chien-Ming Wang- 4.07
Andy Pettite-4.54
And finally here are the prjoected ERA's for next year
CC Sabathia- 3.48
AJ Burnett- 3.62
Chien-Ming Wang- 3.70
Andy Pettite-3.90
A few things jump out at me from these stats. First off the FIP's and the ERA's from last year for both Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettite don't match up at all. Was the Yankees defense really that bad (I'll get to this later). The second thing, why does CC project to regress that badly? Is the move to the AL East going to hurt him that badly? I don't think it will as its not like he has no experience pitching in the AL. Perhaps his numbers really are that inflated by his mid year move to the NL central last year. Will just have to wait and tell on this one.
Anyway, back to the Yankees defense from last year. I'm sure we've all heard the phrases like Derek Jeter and Jason Giambi have as much range as my grandmother at their respective positions, But really just how bad can there defense be? To answer this question I visisted http://www.fieldingbible.com/ by Bill James and John Dewan. Really an amazing site and a good read, I definently suggest you check out.
None of the Yankees outfielders appeared in the top 10 best fielders or worst 10, aside from Bobby Abreu who made 24 less plays than the average right fielder. So I guess that puts them at a little blow average. The Yankees infield on the other hand was horrific. Arod didn't rank in the top 10 or bottom 10, but from there it goes down hill. Jason Giambi made 18 less plays than the average firstbaseman, Jeter made 12 less, and Cano 16 less. So yes it really was that bad, on the bright side though Giambi's -18 has been replaced by Teixera's +24. Also, I expect Cano to rebound completely, it looked as if he was playing out of position all last year in order to try and make up for Giambi's complete lack of range (I don't think that worked top well). Keep in mind Cano made 17 more plays than the average second baseman in 2007. Unlike Jeter who made 34 less than the average shortstop.
After doing this research a few things have really stood out
1. The Mark Teixeira signing really was that important, without it the Yankees defense would be comparable to last year.
2. Andy Pettite may be one of the best deals of the offseason with an FIP projected to rank as the Yankee's second best
3. With Jeter’s defense declining like it is, what is going to happen to him once his contract is up?
Next time I am going to take a look at the Red Sox rotation and defense and see just how well it matches up against the Yankees.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
